April 20, 2026
Markets:
Stock futures fell on Monday as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated over the weekend with the seizure of an Iranian-flagged cargo ship.
President Donald Trump on Sunday said the U.S. had fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. This comes after Iran declined to join another round of peace talks in Pakistan planned by the U.S.
The Iranian ship “is under U.S. Treasury Sanctions because of their prior history of illegal activity. We have full custody of the ship, and are seeing what’s on board,” Trump said in Truth Social post.
Trump also threatened to blow up all power plants and bridges in Iran if the country didn’t agree to a deal with the U.S. A ceasefire between the two countries will expire this week.
Crude prices surged following the developments. West Texas Intermediate futures popped 6% to above $88 per barrel. International Brent advanced 6% to above $95 per barrel.
Wall Street is coming off a winning week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite climbing to all-time highs following a ceasefire between Iran and Lebanon. At the time, Iran had declared that the Strait of Hormuz was reopened, though by Saturday vessel traffic through that key shipping lane was restricted again, with state media saying the U.S. “did not fulfill their obligations.”
Trump has reiterated that the U.S. blockade of the strait would remain in place until Iran agreed to U.S. demands, despite the Iranian declarations.
Portfolio:
Let’s call it what it is right out of the gate. This is a healthy reset to start the week, not something to fear. These early week pullbacks consistently create opportunity, especially when they come after strength. The Sunday gap down is doing exactly what it tends to do, giving us a chance to reload into names we wanted more exposure to.
We enter the week holding setups in STM, MSFU, and AMPX.
This is a major earnings week led by TSLA and LRCX, and this is just the beginning. Over the next three weeks, the real forward outlook from earnings will start to take shape, and that is where opportunity expands.
The last few weeks have left many scratching their heads asking the same question. Where is the pullback?
The reality is most do not understand what is actually happening under the surface.
NQ forward P E sits around 22.4x, near the 9th percentile on a one year lookback and still below the ten year average. The most hated sector right now is also one of the cheapest. That is not the narrative being pushed, but it is the reality.
At the same time, insider buying across tech is at a fifteen year high. Twenty six corporate buys, the fastest pace since 2011. The people running these companies are not hesitant. Yet the broader narrative continues to push the idea of a tech bubble.
We just experienced one of the fastest oversold to overbought moves since 1950. Three weeks ago fear dominated. Now many are chasing. Positioning still leans defensive at the institutional level, which means the first real dip is likely to be bought mechanically, not emotionally.
There is still significant capital sitting on the sidelines, especially from retail. When that money starts rotating back in, it adds another layer of demand that can fuel this move even further. If earnings deliver this quarter and next, the setup is there for a sustained chase through the summer and into 2026. But, will it be easy, no! The real opportunity comes in the cycles within the cycles. Thats what we built our system for and we will deliver!
Be ready.