April 13, 2026
Markets:
U.S. stock futures fell Monday after President Donald Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with peace talks between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend ending without a deal.
The breakdown of negotiations in Islamabad reignited worries that the Iran war will last longer than feared, leading to higher oil prices that will continue to strain economies worldwide.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil jumped 7% to above $104 per barrel. International Brent popped 7% to above $102 a barrel.
U.S. Central Command said it will begin blocking all maritime traffic in and out of Iran’s ports at 10 a.m. ET Monday. The U.S. said it will not block vessels using the strait to get to non-Iranian ports.
Vice President JD Vance left Islamabad without a deal with his Iranian counterparts, citing their unwillingness to stop the pursuit of nuclear weapons. But both sides appear farther apart than just that issue, with Iran demanding control of the Strait of Hormuz, war reparations and the release of frozen assets. Pakistan officials said they would try to restart talks in the coming days.
First-quarter earnings season unofficially kicks off this week. The nation’s largest banks will get it started, with Goldman Sachs slated to release results on Monday. Citigroup, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are all on the docket later this week.
Portfolio:
Monster start to the month and we step into a new trading week holding AMPX and TSLL. We are ready to press!
From a technical standpoint, the ideal scenario overnight was a clean test of QQQ down into that 595 area which lines up with the 200 day. That level held just above for now, and if we build off this zone, QQQ sets up to get explosive again. At the same time, do not be surprised to see traders step in early and front run the move with earnings right around the corner.
This quarter is going to remind a lot of people what market we are actually in. The AI and tech cycle is not over. It is still early.
On the macro side, the back and forth between the US and Iran is not going away this week. That volatility is opportunity if you know how to position around it. The market still needs to backtest that massive gap higher from last week. Headlines about talks breaking down are simply the catalyst to get that move. That brings us right back to the 595 area on QQQ which is the level we want to see tested and defended.
Over time this starts to look very similar to what we saw with Russia and Ukraine. Constant headline risk early, sharp reactions, then eventually the market stops caring and trades its own path. We are getting close to that shift. You can already see it in oil this morning. With this type of news, oil should be pushing much higher. It is not. That matters.
Keep a close eye on SPY. Price action has been very constructive from overnight into premarket. The daily trend is still intact. The 669 to 670 area is key near term. That zone should act as support and any hold there opens the door for a push higher and a gap fill. If that level gives way, downside can accelerate quickly, but right now the structure still favors buyers stepping in.
There is a lot to like here. Yes, headlines are still a factor and will create noise, but this is where discipline around flow and price action gives you the edge. We are right on the edge of shifting into full attack mode.
The next few months have the potential to be extremely profitable. The setup in front of us is as strong, if not stronger, than what we saw coming out of last year’s tariff phase.
Cannot stress this enough…welcome and embrace the period ahead! This summer should be a great one!