April 7, 2026
Markets:
Stock futures fell on Tuesday as President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz approached, with hopes of an agreement fading.
Trump has set an 8 p.m. ET deadline for the U.S. and Iran to strike a deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, otherwise the U.S. will destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges. However, his latest comments and new reports suggest an agreement by then is unlikely, as he said in a Truth Social post Tuesday: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”
The president still left room for the possibility that the U.S. wouldn’t end up attacking the Middle Eastern country after the deadline, adding that “now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?”
The Wall Street Journal has also reported that negotiators aren’t optimistic a deal between the U.S. and Iran can be reached before Trump’s deadline.
Portfolio:
We had a strong session yesterday. Heading into today we are holding setups in FLY and TSLL and overall exposure remains light as we prepare for what could be a major shift in market direction very soon.
The focus right now is patience. The next 12 hours are likely to define the short term direction of the market, and there is no need to front run headlines. The queue is active, the watchlist is loaded, and we are preparing to move into attack mode once clarity arrives. If current trends hold, there is a strong possibility that this situation resolves tonight and tomorrow’s market environment looks very different from what we are seeing today.
On the technical side, QQQ is currently holding the 584 area, which is acting as key support. A break below opens the door to 580 and 576, with 568 as a deeper downside level, although that scenario appears less likely at the moment. Expect a jittery session as headlines continue to drive intraday movement, but there is cautious optimism that a deal or resolution could come tonight and stabilize markets quickly.
SPY continues to show constructive behavior, forming an intraday bull flag under the 659 to 660 zone and beginning to push higher out of that structure. Despite the constant flow of headlines, the technical picture remains generally bullish and suggests underlying strength is still present.
Trying to aggressively short this market in this environment is a high risk approach. The structure, positioning, and broader technical picture suggest the market is preparing for a strong move once uncertainty clears. Those who do not see it now will likely recognize it in the coming days as clarity returns and capital flows back into growth and momentum sectors.
Patience remains the key. Headlines can change quickly, but the bigger picture points to a powerful runway forming. The next 12 hours will be critical, and the opportunities that emerge from tomorrow forward could be significant.