April 6, 2026

Markets:

S&P 500 futures ticked higher on Monday following a winning week as oil prices fell slightly, with traders weighing the odds that the U.S.-Iran war could end soon.

Axios reported that the U.S., Iran, and a group of regional mediators were discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war, though the chances for reaching a partial deal before the Tuesday deadline were slim.

Reuters also reported that Iran and the U.S. have received a plan to end hostilities that, if agreed, would result in an immediate ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The framework, which could come into effect on Monday, was put together by Pakistan, an unnamed source told Reuters.

President Donald Trump is set to hold a news conference with the military at 1 p.m. ET.

On Sunday, Trump warned the U.S. would strike Iran’s power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t opened by Tuesday. “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!” Trump said in a Truth Social post.

Monday will mark the first session during which investors will be able to react to the stronger-than-expected March jobs report, which came out on Friday. U.S. markets were closed due to Good Friday.

Portfolio:

We enter this new week holding setups in FLY and TSLL. Absolute wild weekend of news and headlines, but the best news is we seem to be getting closer to clarity. The market’s primary focus remains the ongoing conflict with Iran and the uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has given Iran until 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that failure to comply could trigger U.S. attacks on key infrastructure. At the same time, the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators are working toward a potential 45 day ceasefire that could eventually lead to an end to the war. Trump is scheduled to hold a press conference today at 1:00 PM ET to address the situation, which will likely set the tone for the next major market move.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz just hit its highest level since the opening days of the war. A total of 21 ships passed through over the weekend, which is a sign that movement through the corridor is picking back up.

Think about this, futures are not as bad as everyone feared this weekend, perhaps the market is front running the deal that could be made today or tomorrow. Markets would be jittery today and tomorrow while waiting on news. For today, stay above the 584 to 585 PDH area for a grind higher. PMH is near 590. There is a small gap to fill at 585. If 580 breaks, we will have to call to be defensive.

The game plan is right there. Patience, and then the real opportunity should begin. This is a 48 hour patience window. Do not trade the headlines right now. Let this resolve itself and then we move. I truly feel sorry for the people who do not see the opportunity developing in front of them. Of course the market has been hard over the last several weeks, it is set to punish the weak and impatient hands. It will shake the tree and leave many behind, the same type of setup seen last year. We want everyone on board for the get back. Just stay patient here. The real period is coming soon.