March 30, 2026

Markets:

U.S. equity futures traded higher on Monday after President Donald Trump offered investors hope that an end to the war against Iran is drawing near.

“The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Monday.

However, while the president added that “great progress has been made,” he also said that if a peace deal is not reached “shortly” and the Strait of Hormuz is not “immediately” reopened, the U.S. will “conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet ‘touched.’”

This comes after Trump said Sunday that Tehran had accepted most of the U.S.′ 15-point plan to end the war and that Iran has agreed to allow an additional 20 oil ships cross the Strait.

Traders have worried in recent weeks that higher energy prices could hurt the economy. El-Erian believes the next tipping point economically speaking would be “physical shortages,” saying Monday that “if we start seeing that in Asia, that will impact the U.S.” He continued, “the U.S. will now import higher products in terms of prices, and the question is do we now see also a disruption in the availability of products?”

Wall Street is coming off a losing week, with the Dow and Nasdaq tipping into correction territory. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 all posted their fifth straight weekly declines.

The market will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday, although the March jobs report is still scheduled for release that morning.

Portfolio:

We enter the new week and the final days of Q1 holding setups in PL and SOXL.

The biggest concern right now is simple — five straight weeks down and still no true capitulation.

Breadth is washed out, but the typical signals we look for haven’t fully triggered. The VIX hasn’t pushed above 35, the put/call ratio hasn’t broken above 1.30, and financials trading around 14x earnings still haven’t produced a meaningful bounce. I’m watching closely for any two of those to flip — that’s usually when the real setup forms.

At the same time, one strong headline could prevent capitulation altogether and send this market into a powerful rally. There is also a growing possibility that too many traders are waiting for a crash signal that never comes, which itself becomes the fake-out. The market has consistently avoided the expected playbook over the past few years, and this may simply be the new environment.

The one thing that remains clear is that we are still in the middle of a major AI and technology revolution, and that theme will reignite leadership once conditions stabilize.

Patience remains the strategy.

Our playbook is the same as last year — trend lines are defined, levels are mapped, and setups are in place. Stay disciplined, stay light, and be ready to act when momentum returns.

Be ready today.