March 18, 2026

Markets:

Futures are pointing higher this morning as crude pulls back and traders gear up for today’s Fed decision.

Dow futures are up around 160 points, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also pushing higher by roughly 0.4%–0.5%.

Oil is easing, with WTI down about 1.5% near $94, helping take some pressure off equities. Brent is relatively flat.

This comes after a solid session yesterday where markets managed to grind higher despite strength in oil. Headlines continue to revolve around Middle East tensions, including recent commentary from Donald Trump regarding U.S. involvement and protection of shipping routes. Ongoing concerns around the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure disruptions have kept energy markets volatile.

Now the focus turns squarely to the Fed. The market is pricing in no change to rates (currently expected to remain in the 3.5%–3.75% range), but the real key will be what Jerome Powell signals about inflation, oil, and the path forward.

 

Portfolio:

We head into today holding positions in SERV, SPSC and TALK. The board is lighting up early — strong momentum showing up right out of the gate.

Oil pulling back is helping set the tone after Iraq and Kurdish officials agreed to restart exports through Turkey. That removes a layer of near-term pressure and is a net positive for equities.

All eyes are on 2:00 PM ET. No move is expected from the Fed, but the press conference is where things can get interesting. That’s typically where volatility kicks in.

After the close, we get a major catalyst with MU earnings. This will be a key signal for the broader memory and storage group — a strong report there likely lifts the entire space.

Stepping back, today matters.

We’ve been talking about a potential shift — and we’re starting to see early signs. The heavy overnight selling that’s been weighing on markets is finally backing off. That doesn’t mean everything is fixed, but it does mean sentiment is beginning to stabilize.

Forget the VIX — price action is what matters. And right now, the market is starting to digest the macro noise instead of reacting to every headline. That “desensitization” is often the first phase of a turn.

If oil continues to fade, that becomes another tailwind.

Expect movement today — especially around the Fed.

But keep this in mind: the real move tends to show up the day after FOMC. It’s a pattern we’ve seen time and time again.

The true money making opportunities are right around the corner!