March 9, 2026

Markets:

Stock futures plunged to start the week as U.S. oil topped $100 a barrel, raising concern about a stagflationary environment for the U.S. economy of rising inflation and slowing growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is coming off its biggest weekly slide in nearly a year.

West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 13% to around $103 per barrel, its first time above the $100 level since 2022 when investors were reacting to the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Oil prices rose above $119 at one point in overnight trading. International benchmark Brent crude added 13% to reach almost $105 a barrel. U.S. oil prices began the year below $60 a barrel.

Oil futures jumped after major Middle East producers slashed their output due to the continued closure of the key Strait of Hormuz passageway. Kuwait announced cuts but did not say by how much, while Iraq has reportedly seen its production fall 70%.

Oil prices came off their highest levels of the session and stock futures rose from their lows following a Financial Times report that G7 officials were considering tapping their strategic reserves.

The $100 oil level was seen by many on Wall Street as a breaking point for the economy unless the war is resolved quickly and prices retreat. Trump posted Sunday evening that a gain in “short term oil prices” was a “very small price to pay” for destroying Iran’s nuclear threat.

Portfolio:

We enter todays session holding setups in SPSC, TALK, and TGB.  We've been trying to pick our spots here and wait patiently as we work through this conflict.  One thing is absolutely certain, the comeback will be outstanding for this market soon enough.  

There is already a massive oil move in the works this morning; US oil prices extend their reversal, now dropping below $100/barrel and up just +9% on the day.  Trump is telling you this pop on Oil is a PUT opportunity. Listen to him.

Last nights futures almost felt like capitulation….we are getting close to that power move.  Remember what we stated last week; Technically, both QQQ and SPY continue to behave well. Bears simply haven’t been able to break this market down. When this range finally resolves, the move out of it could be explosive. The longer we stay trapped in this range, the more energy builds for that breakout.  SPY needs to hold now and start to bounce.  Watching this closely, patience for now.  Real opportunity is coming.