March 6, 2026

Markets:

Stock futures fell Friday, putting equities on pace to add to their weekly declines as oil price spike, while traders awaited new U.S. jobs data.

West Texas Intermediate futures broke above $86 per barrel, hitting its highest level since April 2024. International Brent crude also reached levels not seen in nearly two years, trading above $89 per barrel, as investors weighed the impact of the U.S.-Iran war on global energy supply.

Qatar’s energy minister told The Financial Times that Gulf energy producers may need to call force majeure in the coming days, shutting down production in a move that could send oil to $150 a barrel. The conflict in the Middle East could “bring down the economies of the world,” he warned.

Friday brings traders a new market catalyst in the form of February’s nonfarm payrolls. U.S. payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February; unemployment rate rises to 4.4%.

Portfolio:

We head into the final trading session of the week holding positions in TGB, TALK, ONDS, SPSC, and FCX.

QQQ is now seeing its third gap down of the week. The interesting part? The last two gaps recovered. Despite all the headlines and volatility, the Q’s are still holding above 600, which is pretty remarkable when you zoom out and look at the bigger picture.

Meanwhile, oil continues to push higher. West Texas Intermediate crude oil spiked overnight and is now trading around $86 per barrel, the highest level we’ve seen since 2024. Rising oil prices tied to potential supply disruptions are putting near-term pressure on equities.

This week we’ve been closely tracking CL (WTI crude futures) alongside the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) for direction. The pattern has been consistent:

Oil rises → VIX spikes → S&P pulls back

It’s been a recurring theme throughout the week, and we’ve used that relationship to help guide entries and exits, which has allowed us to capture several strong wins while avoiding some of the market’s whipsaws.

Overall, this week has been about premium compression and volatility swings, but the real opportunity is building beneath the surface. The S&P 500 has been range-bound for several months, and the pressure continues to build for a larger move once that range finally breaks.

When it does, the opportunity could be one of the best we’ve seen in years, and our focus will be on identifying those moves as they unfold.

For now, patience remains key. There’s no need to chase every day-to-day move. We’re focused on isolated, high-probability setups while the broader market works through this range.

This weekend could also bring new developments that impact the markets, and there are already plenty of rumors circulating. We’ll be watching closely and ready to act as things unfold.