January 26, 2026

Markets:

Stock futures were relatively unchanged on Monday as traders monitored political developments and braced for a big week of key earnings reports as well as a U.S. monetary policy meeting.

President Donald Trump over the weekend threatened to slap a 100% tariff on goods coming into the U.S. from Canada if the country makes a trade deal with China. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in response that Ottawa has “no intention” of pursuing a free trade deal with Beijing.

Investors were also keeping an eye on Washington, as growing outrage over federal immigration agents fatally shooting a U.S. citizen in Minnesota for the second time this month generated concerns of a potential U.S. government shutdown. Several Democratic senators said they would not approve a $1.2 trillion funding package if it includes an allotment for Homeland Security. One person familiar with Senate GOP leadership said funding for DHS would not be removed, however.

Gold prices rallied on Monday as investors sought safety amid the rising political and fiscal risks, with the metal reaching a new all-time high and surpassing $5,100 per ounce.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its first policy decision of the year on Wednesday. While the Fed is widely expected to keep its overnight rate unchanged, Wall Street will look for clues on when Fed officials will cut rates.

Portfolio:

We’re off to a monster start this year, and heading into the new week we’re holding solid setups in SATL, ONDS, and TSLL.  

We’ve been highlighting SPY ranges for months now, and clearing the 7-handle was the big milestone we wanted to see. This range has held for the past two weeks, and it feels like this may finally be the week we get resolution.

Wednesday alone could do it — FOMC at 2:00 PM, Powell at 2:30 PM, followed by Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla earnings after the bell. Add in GDP Thursday morning, Apple earnings Thursday night, and a Supreme Court tariff ruling that could drop at any time, and you’ve got a market sitting right in the middle, waiting for direction. We’re currently around 6,933, stuck in no-man’s land.

If we break higher, 7,000 becomes the magnet, with a real shot at new highs. If we break lower, we’ll be targeting the 6,780 area short term before we can look for a bounce. These levels give us a clear framework — and the ability to trade both sides with confidence.

One interesting thing to note: President Trump has historically been very dialed in when it comes to market pricing. He’s often referenced the market as a barometer for economic success, and his past “buy” comments have lined up closely with pullbacks — whether in individual names, Bitcoin, or the broader market. Over the weekend, he made another bold statement that the market could double from here. Not saying that’s a guarantee, but it’s worth acknowledging that he likely has more insight into what’s coming than most.

Short term, we’re extremely focused on earnings this week: TSLA, MSFT, AAPL, SNDK, and META. We want to see the numbers, but more importantly, the outlook. Updates on AI spend and buildout will be critical.  Be ready today.