January 2, 2026

Markets:

Stock futures rose Friday, the first trading day of 2026, as tech looked to build on its momentum from last year.

Friday’s gain marks a reversal from the first-day trading trend of the last few years. The S&P 500 finished lower on the first day of trading for each of the last three years. Going back to the 1950s, there is no discernible trend, with the first day finishing positive about 48% of the time, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

In the premarket, Nvidia shares rose more than 1%, while Palantir Technologies advanced more than 2%. Both artificial intelligence-related names were big winners in 2025, with Nvidia rising about 39% and Palantir surging 135%. Fellow tech stocks Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft
also traded higher.

Tech was the best trade of 2025, leading the broader market to sharp gain as investors continued to pile into AI names. The S&P 500 gained more than 16% last year, marking its third straight annual advance. The Nasdaq Composite jumped more than 20% last year, and the Dow climbed around 13%. The three benchmarks hit record highs last year.

Portfolio:

We enter the first trading session of 2026—and the final session of the holiday week—holding setups in AMDL, RKLB, TSLL, and PATH. We’re well positioned across multiple sectors, but before getting overly excited about today’s rebound, it’s important to keep expectations grounded.

Volume remains thin, and holiday conditions can exaggerate price action. The real trading begins next week when full participation returns and the market starts to define early leadership for 2026. This is one of our favorite windows of the year—when themes emerge, capital rotates, and opportunity accelerates.

AI and tech will remain front and center, but 2026 will be about separation. Clear winners will emerge in the AI race, and we expect increased M&A activity as mega-cap players acquire smaller companies to gain strategic edges. You’ll also see more corporate restructuring and spin-offs—BIDU overnight is a great example.

One of the major themes we’ll be emphasizing in 2026: the memory market remains supply-constrained, driven by explosive AI infrastructure demand.

Key takeaways:

DRAM: Supply +15–20%, demand +20–25%

NAND: Supply +13–18%, demand +18–23%

Server demand: +40–50% YoY, driving the bulk of the tightness

There are monster opportunities developing here, and we’ll be exposing them as the year unfolds. Over the next couple of weeks, certain names will be pushed front and center as defining themes for 2026. This always happens—and once leadership is established, the race is on.