December 31, 2025

Markets:

U.S. stock futures slipped Wednesday as Wall Street prepares to close out a banner year for equities.

Stocks are on pace for a fourth consecutive down session, though selling pressure has remained contained. Even with the recent pullback, the S&P 500 is still positioned to finish the year up roughly 17%, marking its third straight year of double-digit gains. The Nasdaq Composite, fueled by relentless AI enthusiasm, is up about 21% on the year. The Dow has gained roughly 13% in 2025, lagging slightly due to its limited exposure to high-growth tech.

This caps an impressive recovery from the sharp April drawdown that followed President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement. At one point, the S&P 500 was flirting with bear-market territory, sliding nearly 19% from its February highs and briefly dipping below the 5,000 level for the first time since April 2024.

What’s notable now is the timing. The final five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year are historically strong — the well-known “Santa Claus rally” window. While recent declines have been modest, the lack of upside follow-through during a seasonally bullish stretch is something we’re monitoring closely.

Portfolio:

We head into the final trading session of 2025 holding active setups in AMDL, RKLB, ONDS, TSLL, and PATH.

From a broader index perspective, the plan remains straightforward. On SPX, we’re patient. A clean push through 6,921 opens the door for a move toward 7,000 in early January. For now, price remains locked in the same range it’s respected over the past three sessions.

As we wrap up what was ultimately a choppy and clunky year, the Nasdaq sits stalled near all-time highs and is flirting with a potential triple-top formation. This has our full technical attention. We would love to see a decisive breakout and continuation higher, but we will absolutely respect downside pressure if this formation resolves lower. If that happens, it could set up a monster opportunity — first to the downside, then an aggressive long when the bounce comes. We’re watching this closely.

Everywhere you look, the same narrative is being repeated: first-half weakness, rebound into year-end. The real question is this — if that formation breaks to the upside as we enter 2026, how violent does the chase become? That’s where patience pays. We wait, we let the market show its hand, and then we attack.

Q1 consistently delivers the best opportunities of the year, and this setup is no different. Volume has been extremely thin during the holiday stretch, making it nearly impossible to trade size with conviction. That’s fine — discipline now sets the stage for execution later.

With that said, we remain very patient.

Wishing everyone a happy, healthy, and successful New Year. We truly believe 2026 will be our best year yet given the technical structure forming beneath the surface and the broader pro-market tone coming from this administration.

Be ready. The opportunity is coming.