December 11, 2025

Markets:

S&P and Nasdaq futures fell Wednesday night as Oracle’s results reignited fears about high-flying tech stocks even after the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate cut gave a boost to U.S. equity markets in the prior session.

In after-hours trading, Oracle shares tumbled 11% after the cloud computing company posted disappointing quarterly revenue and raised its spending forecast. The report added more fuel to the debate about how quickly tech companies will be able to see returns on their AI investments. Other AI plays were also trading lower in extended trading, including Nvidia, which was down 1%, and CoreWeave, which fell more than 3%.

Stocks rose in Wednesday’s session and got a lift after a divided Fed announced an interest rate cut for the third time this year and ruled out a rate hike. The central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee cut its key overnight borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point to a 3.5%-3.75% range and signaled a slower pace of rate cuts ahead.

Fed chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is ”’well positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves” and noted President Donald Trump’s tariffs have been a driver of inflation.

Portfolio

Before diving into yesterday’s swings and the post-FOMC shakeout, let’s acknowledge what might be the most ridiculous headline of the morning: “Oracle results fail to stoke AI trade.”
We’re really doing this now? We’re gauging the fate of AI on Oracle’s earnings? These “AI worries” headlines pop up every quarter, same people who once said the internet wouldn’t matter.  But ORCL earnings were fine.  

More importantly, we’ve got two names on deck today that we do care about: CIEN and AVGO. CIEN has been a fantastic multi-stage AI infrastructure play for us, and after a massive run into earnings, it’ll be fascinating to see how it reacts. We’re also very interested in their commentary this morning.

Now—FOMC. Another classic case of excessive hype and noise. Every meeting turns into a media circus, and traders act like it’s life or death. It’s not. Calm down, block out the chatter, and look at what they’re telegraphing. The trajectory for rates is obvious, and the policy direction from this administration is even more obvious. President Trump even said afterward that he should’ve doubled the rate cut.

If you’re not seeing what’s coming next, at least read what they’re saying out loud. SPX 8500+ next year? It’s not fantasy—it's rooted in where policy and the dollar are headed.

Best tell of the day came right after the announcement:
A massive order hit the tape—QQQ Jan 2027 $900 calls bought at $2.60. A very large and very confident player is positioning for where this market could be a year out.

Silence the noise. Follow the trend.

We head into today holding ONDS, TSLL, RR and, RIVN (Happy RIVN Day). Solid session yesterday, locked in gains, and now we move forward. Stay alert over the next couple sessions—we expect a couple of strong setups to emerge.