November 24, 2025

Markets:

Stock futures were mixed on Monday morning as the market seeks to rebound into the Thanksgiving holiday week after a slide that’s knocked the air out of this year’s AI bull run.

Stocks are attempting to build on a strong rebound that started on Friday, after the head of the New York Federal Reserve left the door open to a December interest rate cut. Major averages have still stumbled sharply since the month began, pressured by a reconsideration of sky-high valuations across artificial intelligence-linked names that had powered much of 2025′s market gains.

The final stretch of November may be no easier. With trading volumes expected to thin out in the coming days and few meaningful catalysts ahead of the Fed’s December policy meeting, volatility could pick up.

Key macro events this week include October U.S. retail sales and October Producer Price Index data on Tuesday, both of which could help shape expectations heading into the Fed’s final meeting of the year.

Expectations for a December rate cut jumped noticeably after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams signaled he sees room for “further adjustment” to interest rates.

Portfolio:

Is the worst stretch since April behind us? It might be. The bigger trend is still very much intact, even if the last two weeks tested everyone’s nerves. We head into this holiday week holding setups in NBIL and A—and what we saw Friday gives us real conviction. Technicals mattered again, buyers showed up with force, and the tape finally started behaving the way a healthy market should.

Last week looked chaotic on the surface—tech cracked, vol popped, shorts pressed, NDX lost its balance, liquidity dried up, and every conversation had that “is this the top?” tone to it. Yet when the dust settled, SPX was down less than 2% and nowhere near what would qualify as structural damage. The remarkable part wasn’t what broke… it was what didn’t.

This market had every reason to implode. Systematic flows sold into weakness, CTAs dumped billions, vol-control finished one of its biggest de-risk cycles of the year, dealer gamma hit summer lows, ETFs saw outsized volumes, and S&P liquidity hit levels that normally cause real dislocations. Even the strongest tech names finally buckled. And still—after all of that—the index printed a green Friday.

Yes, some of the high flyers got punched around these past two weeks, but that may be precisely where the opportunity is emerging now. Software and semis absorbed most of the hedging and PnL-protection selling. Unprofitable tech got flushed for a third week in a row—a classic late-year washout that always feels worse than it is.

Also, one the biggest absurd headlines was the fear producing rhetoric being placed that there would be no further rate cuts.  Magically, that number has now balloned to 80% rate cute in December.  I bet it continues to rise. 

Our greatest opportunity is just around the corner.  Better believe we will be rewarded plau much more for what we endured over the past two weeks.  Be ready!