November 21, 2025

Markets

U.S. equity futures are snapping back this morning after New York Fed President John Williams opened the door to another potential rate cut in December. His comments were enough to break the market out of its AI-stock slump and immediately pushed rate-cut expectations sharply higher. Fed funds futures now price in better than a 70% chance of a quarter-point cut next month — up from just 39% the day prior, per the CME FedWatch tool.

AI names, which were lining up for another rough session before Williams spoke, quickly reversed. Nvidia and AMD flipped green and climbed about 1% each as traders bet that easier monetary policy could revive the soft economic backdrop and support stretched tech valuations.

All of this comes after a brutal reversal on Thursday. The Dow had surged more than 700 points early in the day on Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings before the rally evaporated, dragging the S&P 500 and Nasdaq sharply lower on renewed fears the Fed might stay put in December.

For the week, the S&P 500 is still down 2.9%, the Dow has shed nearly 3%, and the Nasdaq is off 3.6%. Some see the action as less a sign of deterioration and more of a normal digestion phase after a strong year of gains.

Portfolio

We head into the final session of the week holding positions in TSLL, ONDS, AAOI, SOUN, RDW, and A. It’s been one of the toughest stretches for the market since April — and also one of the most opportunistic. Several high-quality names are trading at deep discounts. If you loved CoreWeave at $150, you can now get it near $70. That theme is repeating across the board. This is where opportunity begins.

On the technical front:
A quick look at the 3-month or year-to-date chart for the Qs shows yesterday’s gap fill and a critical test. QQQ needs to reclaim 588 to reignite upside momentum.
For the S&P: SPY 650 remains the major line in the sand, though we’d prefer to see 655 hold to strengthen the bull case.

Yesterday also delivered extreme sentiment signals — the Fear Index printed one of its wildest readings of the year, and the NAAIM Exposure Index hit 100.83, the highest since July 2024. Historically, when NAAIM hits 100, smart money starts preparing to reload.

Here’s the setup that matters now:
SPY just flushed on heavy volume straight into 653.50, one of the most reliable demand zones in this entire range. The real battle is at 657.50. If SPY can’t reclaim that level, sellers remain firmly in control. A breakdown under 653.50 opens a clean staircase lower: 650 → 646 → 642, aligning with previous demand pockets and the next volume shelf.

We want bulls to reclaim 660 on SPY before we fully step on the gas. For now, we’re in a disciplined “sit tight” stance while this short-term battle plays out. Regardless of how noisy the last two weeks have been, the setup forming here will lead to some of the strongest returns once this resolves — in either direction.

Start building your shopping list. The next bounce has the potential to be powerful. We just want to respect the possibility of one final flush before the move higher.