November 19, 2025

Markets:

Stock futures rebounded on Wednesday from a four-day slide centered around technology as investors bet Nvidia’s earnings after the bell would calm fears that artificial intelligence stocks are overvalued and overhyped.

Tuesday’s session saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 notch their fourth consecutive losing days, with the S&P 500 notching its longest slide since August. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite recorded its fifth negative day in six sessions. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $90,000 on Tuesday before recovering, while gold prices rose from a one-week low.

Weakness in tech comes ahead of Nvidia’s highly awaited third-quarter results due after Wednesday’s market close. Analysts largely expect that Nvidia — the largest company in the broad-market index — will meaningfully beat Wall Street’s expectations and forecast strong sales growth driven by demand for its AI chips and other infrastructure. But Nvidia has a high bar to beat. Investors have taken profits from their tech holdings in recent days, reflecting heightened concerns that the AI boom has run up the valuations of Nvidia and other tech hyperscalers at an unsustainable pace.

Portfolio:

We enter this massive session — Nvidia Day — positioned in AMDL, CWVX, AAOI, SOUN, RDW, and A. We continue to believe the ugly price action of the last two weeks is nearing an end. Unless Nvidia delivers a truly poor report and weak guidance (guidance is what matters most to us), we expect the broader AI/tech trend to resume — the same trend that has driven this market for the past year, and especially the past several months.

Yesterday finally brought signs of strength. A few days ago we noted large, aggressive positioning for higher movement in the Q’s into 2026 — and we saw more of that build yesterday. Midday, the NAMO posted an “oversold” reading even as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 finished well off their morning lows. Both NAMO and NYMO closed green despite a 7% pullback from recent Nasdaq highs. That’s a classic positive divergence — a bullish development.

Could it be a simple dead-cat bounce? Sure. But in this market, V-bottoms have been far more common than drawn-out basing processes. As we said yesterday: once Nvidia reports, give it a session or two, and the real move could begin — potentially carrying straight into 2026. Still early, but consistent with this market’s behavior.

Stay patient. Nibble your favorites. Our window to go full attack mode is getting close.