October 20, 2025

Markets:

Stock futures moved higher Monday as investors shift their focus to a packed week of major earnings reports and key inflation data.

Sentiment got an early boost from a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has recently exempted dozens of products from reciprocal tariffs — and may approve hundreds more. The move reflects growing consensus among administration officials that the U.S. should ease duties on goods not produced domestically.

Markets are coming off a volatile but positive week. Despite renewed U.S.–China tensions, pressure on regional banks, and profit-taking in top AI names, the major indexes managed to close higher. A strong start to Q3 earnings season, combined with rising expectations for another quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s late-October meeting, has helped restore confidence.

On Friday, stocks extended gains after Trump sounded upbeat about a potential trade agreement with China ahead of his upcoming meeting with President Xi Jinping in South Korea. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also added optimism, saying “things have de-escalated” with China and signaling a likely meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng this week — a development suggesting the threatened 100% tariff hike on Chinese imports set for November 1 may not materialize.

Portfolio:

We’re heading into what could be a monster stretch for the markets. Big Tech earnings kick off this week, alongside major updates from several sectors fueling the AI and technology revolution. Over the next three weeks, company guidance should help define the market’s direction heading into year-end — and everything points to fireworks.

If U.S.–China negotiations resolve positively (and we strongly believe they will), this market could be setting up for a true supercycle. Many still argue the rally is overheated — but that’s not how bull cycles work. We’re still early. Money market balances remain at record highs, and with the dollar weakening and rates trending lower, that capital will inevitably start flowing back into equities. That rotation hasn’t even begun yet.

We enter the week holding positions in EOSE, NVTS, ONDS, CDZI and TSLL. The setup looks strong, but with earnings season kicking off, flow and price action will be critical in confirming direction. Watch for large institutional blocks — they’ll tell us where short-term conviction lies.

One eye-catching move Friday: a major buyer stepped into S&P (SPY) 4000 Sep 30, 2026 $800 calls at $5.57. That’s serious long-term bullishness — and as we like to say, someone always knows.

Remember, based on historical bull cycles, we likely have at least 30 months of runway ahead. What makes this one unique is the unprecedented liquidity surge — powered by AI, automation, and explosive productivity growth. Yes, we’ll see volatility, but those moments are part of the climb. Stay grounded, stay focused, and keep your eyes on the bigger picture.

Let’s make it a great week.