October 17, 2025

Markets:

U.S. stock futures fell on Friday, but were well off their lows as traders tried to move past credit concerns sparked by a sell-off in regional banks.

Stocks that led Thursday’s bank sell off were up higher in premarket trading.

Zions Bancorp climbed more than 4% after receiving an upgrade from Baird. Investment bank Jefferies was last up 3% after Oppenheimer raised its rating to outperform. Better-than-expected earnings from Fifth Third Bancorp also assuaged worries, sending the stock higher by 2.8%.

Big banks also bounced back, with J.P. Morgan ticking up less than 1% and Bank of America regaining some of its losses from the previous session.

Each of the major U.S. stock indexes closed in the red on Thursday, fueled by a significant decline in bank stocks late in the session.

Stocks remain on track for weekly gains despite Thursday’s decline. The S&P 500 is up nearly 1.2% after a strong start to the third-quarter earnings. The Dow has added about 1% week to date, while the Nasdaq has gained 1.6%.

Portfolio:

What a wild overnight move — ES now flat after being down nearly 1.5%. Nothing like a classic “vol crush Friday” to kick off the session.

We’ve said it all week: the biggest risk was headline-driven volatility, and it remains short-term noise. That theme should fade next week as major earnings take the spotlight — with TSLA, IBM, INTC, and NFLX all reporting.

Here’s our current trade plan:

SPY has massive support between 647–653. We’re using a six-point range given multiple levels in play there. 647 is the key short-term pivot; below that, we’d switch bias to short-term put plays.

We continue to see no chance of SPY breaking below 600 this year.

On the upside, a reclaim and build above 665 sets the stage for a push toward 700, which remains our end-of-year target.

QQQ should hold 575–580 on the downside. We’re looking for a strong build above 600, and we maintain high conviction in tech strength given monster earnings momentum and continued capital flow into the AI and automation cycle.

Nothing has changed in our broader forecast — stay patient and avoid overreacting to noise. The “headline risk” we flagged early in the week should fade as focus shifts back to fundamentals and earnings.

Also note: it’s OPEX Friday — volatility was crushed intentionally. That’s the game. They punished the late put buyers, and now we’ll see how the day unfolds.

If you’re looking to be opportunistic, consider scaling into a few longer-term names you love — particularly in nuclear energy. That sector got hit hard, but remember: the AI revolution needs energy. Nothing about that narrative changed overnight.