October 7, 2025

Markets:

Stock futures were mostly flat Tuesday morning as investors continued to watch Washington, where the U.S. government shutdown entered its second week.

Expectations for a Monday resolution faded after the Senate, for the fifth time, failed to pass the House’s short-term funding bill that would have kept the government open through Nov. 21. The vote once again split largely along party lines, with at least eight Democrats still needed to reach the 60 votes required to advance the measure.

The shutdown’s extension has already delayed critical economic releases, including the September jobs report originally scheduled for Friday — reducing the data available to the Federal Reserve ahead of its next interest rate decision. The longer this continues, the more uncertainty it introduces around labor market and inflation trends.

Despite the political gridlock, stocks pushed higher Monday, supported by optimism around renewed M&A activity and growing expectations of a Fed rate cut. The S&P 500 hit a fresh record close — its 32nd of the year — and has now advanced for seven straight sessions. The Nasdaq also logged its 31st all-time high of 2025, while the Dow edged slightly lower. The small-cap Russell 2000, meanwhile, broke above 2,500 for the first time ever, finishing at a record high.

Portfolio:

We head into today’s session holding positions in RR, CONL, and TSLL. The queue remains highly active, and while we plan to add more setups, expect some choppiness as government shutdown headlines continue to circulate. Remember — this is short-term noise. Don’t let it distract you from the major trend that’s still building beneath the surface.

From a technical standpoint, SPY opened with a bull gap and remains in an inside-day setup, with intraday momentum pointing toward 672.28. A break above that level could trigger an inside-day breakout run — timing of which could hinge on Powell’s remarks Thursday morning.

If we break lower first, a gap fill and bounce off the 670 level looks likely. A confirmed loss of 670 on the 65-minute or daily chart would be a short-term caution flag — but again, it doesn’t change the bigger Q4 trend or how this quarter is setting up.

Stay sharp and stay patient — the runway ahead remains powerful.