September 30, 2025

Markets:

Stock futures slipped Tuesday as the threat of a U.S. government shutdown loomed. Even with the pullback, Wall Street remains on track for an unusually strong September.

Shutdowns typically don’t have a major impact on markets, but this time could prove different. Investors are already uneasy with signs of a slowing labor market, elevated stock valuations, and the risk of stagflation. Another risk is credit quality—recall Moody’s downgraded the U.S. in May, and a shutdown could prompt more scrutiny.

The Labor Department announced that if the government shuts down, the September nonfarm payrolls report—scheduled for release Friday—will not be published. That data is key for the Fed’s October policy meeting. Heightening concerns, President Donald Trump warned over the weekend that a shutdown could trigger mass federal worker layoffs.

Meanwhile, Tuesday marks the close of Q3. The S&P 500 is up 7.4% quarter-to-date, the Nasdaq has surged nearly 11%, and the Dow has gained 1.7%—pacing for its fifth straight positive quarter.

Portfolio:

Final day of Q3—tomorrow we roll into the fourth quarter with big expectations to finish 2025 strong. We anticipate this will be an outstanding stretch for traders, with new sectors igniting and monster opportunities ahead.

For now, the market remains choppy with quarter-end rebalancing, but this should settle after today. Patience is key.

Technically, SPY’s bull gap is effectively closed and we’re watching the 665 level for a possible test of 666.76. SPY continues to offer more compelling technicals than QQQ, though we expect Q’s to solidify 600 as the new base once momentum builds.

We head into today holding setups in PATH, CIFR, ONDS, and EOSE. The queue looks active this morning, so we may add positions, but expect more swings through today’s session.