September 22, 2025

Markets:

U.S. stock futures slipped Monday after a strong week that saw both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 close at fresh all-time highs.

The pullback follows last week’s widely expected quarter-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve — its first since December. While the decision initially stirred volatility, markets ultimately interpreted it as a dovish shift, especially with signs of a cooling labor market.

Traders now expect two additional quarter-point cuts by year-end, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That makes upcoming economic data even more critical, particularly this week’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. While inflation pressures remain elevated, investors anticipate they’ll stay contained enough for the Fed to maintain its easing path.

Portfolio:

This month has been outstanding — despite the narrative that markets should be sold, we’ve seen new highs and a steady stream of monster trading opportunities. The stage is now being set for a powerful Q4. Some bumps are expected, but the broader trend and opportunities remain clear.

We enter the week holding positions in only CIFR and ONDS.  We are ready to unload this week but want to see where price and flow move too to start the week.

SPY remains the key focus, with a range between 660–665. A sustained move above 665 would be ideal, though consolidation within this band would also be healthy as the market digests recent gains.

We’d like to see QQQ close above 600 and begin building that level into Q4 — a setup that would create a strong runway for the next leg higher. Keep in mind, much of this move has unfolded without significant participation from AAPL or TSLA. If those names kick in, the upside could be even stronger.

This week, we keep it simple: we’re building for Q4 setups. End-of-quarter positioning may add volatility — which we welcome as opportunity. Stay patient and be ready to take advantage.