September 17, 2025

Markets:

Stock futures were little changed Wednesday as traders prepared for a much-anticipated monetary policy decision and an even more important policy outlook from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

Nvidia shares dipped more than 1.3% in the premarket after The Financial Times reported, citing sources, that China has banned tech companies in the country from buying Nvidia’s chips.

Traders almost universally expect the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates on Wednesday, a move that could boost the U.S. economy amid signs the labor market is slowing even as inflation stays stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target. Policymakers will also give more insight into their outlook for rates over the next year or so in the closely-watched “dot plot” grid that accompanies their quarterly Summary of Economic Projections.

Investors will also watch for any policy dissents from Fed policymakers after two such disagreements at the last meeting in July. Traders have priced in a 96% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points, or a quarter percentage point, and just 4% odds that the market will get a half point reduction Wednesday, per the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Portfolio:

It's all about FOMC today. Yesterday was nothing more than a chop fest and we expect swings into the Fed's release this afternoon as well. Still, we enjoyed a very productive week thus far and September has been nothing short of outstanding thus far for us. Patience here and please remember, do not overreact immediately after the Fed release. Allow it to digest before we proceed.

No changes needed with our holdings for todays open. We enter the session with setups in PONY, RR, CIFR, OPEN, ONDS. Be ready today, but especially the final hour of trading – that should be the time of opportunity. It will be difficult to release anything new into the Fed unless we see a massive A+ setup emerge.