August 25, 2025

Markets:

U.S. equity futures ticked lower Monday after the Dow Jones closed at fresh intraday and record highs, with investors now shifting focus to Nvidia’s earnings midweek. Dell and Marvell will follow with results on Thursday.

Stocks rallied last week after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks suggested the central bank may begin easing policy as soon as September. Odds of a quarter-point rate cut next month climbed to 84% from 75% earlier in the week, according to CME FedWatch.

Looking ahead, traders are also eyeing Friday’s July PCE inflation data—the Fed’s preferred gauge. Consensus expects core PCE to rise 2.9% year-over-year, up slightly from June’s 2.8%.

Intel gained more than 2% in premarket trading, extending Friday’s 5.5% surge after the U.S. government disclosed a 10% stake in the chipmaker.

Portfolio:

We open the week positioned in NIO and ZMDTF. A few names are already moving strongly while others are setting up for potentially big runs.

The spotlight is on Nvidia’s earnings Wednesday, which will be a key catalyst not just for the stock but for sentiment across the AI space. These reports often dictate the broader cycle in tech and AI-linked names.

Markets also got a boost from Powell’s dovish signal, with QQQ recovering losses and SPY printing a green hammer into Friday’s close. IWM looks particularly well-positioned to benefit if momentum carries forward.

This week’s follow-through will hinge on two things: NVDA’s results and Friday’s PCE data. If both land in line with expectations, we could see another leg higher.

One note of caution—trading volumes tend to dry up into Labor Day as many desks step away. That lack of liquidity can exaggerate swings, so stay patient and let the setups come to you.  This is the last tricky week for the markets – we believe – for at least until Sep OPEX.  We're working on our Fall trading view / plan and new targets before the year end push.  Our favorite time of the year is right around the corner.  It provides the greatest market opportunities!