August 19, 2025

Markets:

Stock futures ticked lower Tuesday as new earnings from major retailers began to roll in, while traders looked ahead to a key speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later in the week.

Investors have awaited these reports as they search for clues on how the consumer is faring amid a mixed inflation outlook and evolving U.S. trade policy.

Wall Street is also awaiting clues from Powell as to what will happen at the central bank’s remaining policy meetings this year. Central bank officials from around the globe will convene this week in Jackson Hole, Wyo. for the Fed’s annual economic symposium.

The fed funds futures market is indicating an 83% chance for a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s next policy meeting in September, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Portfolio:

Its very clear, this week is all about Powell.  It's essentially a wait and see game with headline rumors.  This is ok and if the bears are unable to attack this type of wait game; it just proves the power of this hated rally.  Now, with that said, so much is happening under the covers and we will report on this further over the next 48 hours.  Many names are beginning to see monster moves over the next 3 months with large lots coming in.  This is great to see!  We also have a few high flying names on the verge of massive breakouts – its actually amusing they are launching during this chop week possibly.  

But patience is highly recommended today once again.  Yesterday was clear sideways action and chop.  We expect SPY and QQQ to stay within range.  Key levels for SPY are very clear 640 t the downside and 645 to the upside.  A break and hold above 645 is uber bullish.  We do feel the next leg to this market starts after Powell.  

No changes needed for current holdings; ONDS, TSLL, and CWVX.  We identified a few names to possibly add should price continue to expand.  But please be patient, as soon as we get through Powell, its full blown attack mode on these opportunities.  Be on high alert today.