August 4, 2025

Markets:

Happy Monday, everyone!

Futures are bouncing this morning as traders look to shake off Friday’s brutal sell-off. The Dow tanked over 500 points to close last week, with the S&P dropping 1.6% and the Nasdaq sliding 2.2%—its worst single-day move since April. Ouch.

What sparked the damage? A double whammy: a disappointing July jobs report and a fresh wave of tariffs from the Trump administration. Late Friday, Trump signed a new executive order updating his “reciprocal” tariffs—ranging from 10% to a whopping 41%—on a long list of U.S. trading partners from Syria to Taiwan.

So now, the focus shifts to what this all means. Will the Fed stay put longer than expected? Does a weakening labor market change the game heading into fall? Traders are already dialing back expectations for a September rate cut.

And to top it all off, welcome to August—historically one of the toughest months for stocks. The Dow’s worst month since 1988. The S&P and Nasdaq’s second worst, too. But… is this market really following any rulebook?

Portfolio:

We're rolling into the week with positions in RYCEY and ONDS.

Last week was a firehose—FOMC, jobs data, monster earnings. Now we get to pause, digest, and position accordingly. Yes, we’ve all heard how August is the slowest month with everyone on vacation, volume fading, and history warning us to tread lightly. But has this market done anything by the book lately? Not even close. This isn’t your grandfather’s August.

Even better—this week we start seeing earnings from companies at the heart of the AI wave and tech revolution. Names like PLTR, TEAM, AMD, SQ, SMCI, IONQ, APP, SYM, SOUN… and a potential nuclear gamechanger with SMR. These are the reports that could shake the tree.

Game plan: Patience out of the gate. Let’s see if this gap up holds or gets faded. What’s the volume like? Where’s the rotation? The best trades won’t be at 9:35 AM—they’ll reveal themselves over the next two sessions – especially with PLTR on deck tonight.  This will drive a number of AI names.

We wait, we watch, and then we strike. These types of setups—uncertainty, hesitation, overreaction—are where some of the best returns come from. Trust the process, don’t force trades, and be ready to move when the answers start to line up.