July 30, 2025

Markets:

S&P 500 futures are holding flat to slightly positive after the index snapped its recent winning streak that had pushed it to record highs. Investors remain focused on a wave of earnings and Wednesday’s key interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve.

Starbucks shares jumped 4% in after-hours trading following stronger-than-expected revenue for its fiscal third quarter. Meanwhile, Visa slipped more than 2% despite beating Wall Street’s expectations.

Markets were under pressure Tuesday as U.S.-China trade talks hit a rough patch. Negotiators ended discussions without finalizing an extension on tariff pauses, and any delay in higher China tariffs still awaits final approval from President Trump.

Attention now shifts to the Fed’s policy announcement due Wednesday at 2 PM. Fed funds futures imply a 98% probability that rates will be held steady at 4.25%–4.5%, per CME FedWatch data.

Earnings season also rolls on. Etsy reports before the bell Wednesday, followed by major names like Meta, Microsoft, Ford, and Robinhood after the close.

Portfolio:

Here we go — what we believe to be the biggest 48-hour stretch of the year for markets. Today is the centerpiece, with the Fed’s decision at 2 PM and powerhouse earnings coming after the close: META, MSFT, QCOM, ARM, and HOOD, just to name a few. These are major sector movers, and we’re particularly watching for AI-related outlooks.

As for the Fed, our view is that Powell won’t cut today — and the odds agree — but he may set the stage for a potential rate-cutting cycle later this year. If he does cut unexpectedly, it’ll be interesting to see how the market digests that. Ideally, we want to see the Fed maintain some independence from political pressure.

Looking ahead, we’d like to see QQQ reach 580 this summer before our next trade plan activates. A healthy consolidation would set the stage for a strong year-end runway. If we can get this consolidation around 580, that would be great. Or we could blow it to 600 and allow that to be the next floor. That is also not our of the question. Technically, we are in such a wonderful place to trade this for the coming months. The next 48 hours will be critical — be ready.