July 29, 2025

Markets:

Stock futures moved higher on the heels of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite eking out yet another record despite a market rally failing to materialize.

The moves come after the broad market index and the Nasdaq hit new all-time and closing highs during Monday’s trading session, just barely seeing gains. It was the 15th record close for the broad market index in 2025. The S&P 500 ultimately finished the day just above the flatline, while the 30-stock Dow ticked down by 0.1%. The Nasdaq ended 0.3% higher, by contrast.

While investors effectively looked past the U.S.-EU trade deal, they will be watching for any other potential deals between the U.S. and other countries, such as China, to be announced by Friday’s tariff deadline. Top U.S. and Chinese officials met in Stockholm Monday for another round of trade talks.

Tariffs and inflation will remain a focal point throughout the week in other areas as well.

The Federal Reserve is set to offer its decision on interest rates Wednesday following its two-day policy meeting. Central bank policymakers are widely expected to keep their benchmark overnight policy rate steady in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.

This week also marks the busiest week of earnings season, with more than 150 S&P 500 companies due to report. That includes several “Magnificent Seven” companies, namely Meta Platforms and Microsoft slated for Wednesday as well as Amazon and Apple for Thursday. 

Portfolio:

We enter the new session holding setups in AMDL, RIVN, and ENVX. The next few sessions could be massive for the market, with major tech earnings and the Fed decision on deck. While we’d love to press harder here, it’s important to stay patient and let the Fed event pass—there’s a lot in motion.

A pullback may come, and it might even be healthy—but it’s not a guarantee. What we’re in the middle of is the beginning of a true bull run. The AI and tech cycle is in its early stages, and we’re also seeing the start of an infrastructure revolution. Pay attention to what this administration is laying out—tariff negotiations and major foreign investment deals are already in motion. This could be the foundation of a multi-year supercycle.

The options flow supports this outlook. Large institutions are loading up on long-dated QQQ and SPY positions through 2027. We’re talking tens of millions in premium being placed as the market rises—clear positioning for something much bigger ahead.

As you know, we lean heavily on market psychology. It’s what led us to start positioning for a bull run back in late March—and our performance reflects that conviction. Lately, FinTwit, media pundits, and social chatter have all been calling for a sell-off in August. But we know how this game works—August could end up being a month that catches shorts off guard and forces a chase higher.  Be ready today.  The next few sessions will be very telling.