June 18, 2025

Markets:

U.S. stock futures edged higher early Wednesday as traders kept a close eye on escalating tensions in the Middle East and awaited the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision.

Markets came under pressure Tuesday as the Israel-Iran conflict intensified, now entering its sixth day. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stated the country will not surrender and warned the U.S. of “irreparable damage” if it intervenes.

Adding fuel to the situation, former President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, warning Iran that “our patience is wearing thin” and calling for “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” According to NBC News, Trump is reportedly evaluating military options.

Meanwhile, all eyes turn to the Fed today. The central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady, with the announcement set for 2 p.m. ET. Traders will be watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments closely, along with the updated “dot plot” showing members’ outlook on future rate policy.

Portfolio:

It’s Fed Day, and this will likely be the key short-term market driver.

Despite global headlines, the market remains surprisingly resilient. If there were real selling pressure tied to the Iran situation, we would’ve seen it by now. Instead, SPY and QQQ are holding strong, which is a bullish sign.

What do we expect from the Fed? 100% chance of a rate pause. Powell will likely stick to the familiar “data-dependent” script. Recent inflation readings have been soft, while the labor market remains strong—so we expect a neutral tone overall.

Watch the leaders: CRWV, AMD, NVDA, and TSLA continue to show strength, with notable upside call volume. Volatility is expected today, especially with markets closed tomorrow, but the overall bullish trend remains intact.

Key support levels:

SPY: 595

QQQ: 525

We’re hovering just beneath breakout territory. The summer setup is still shaping up to be a strong one.  Be ready for new trades today.