June 16, 2025

Markets:

Stock futures edged higher early Monday as oil prices pulled back slightly following a weekend of heightened tensions between Israel and Iran. While the initial spike in crude prices has cooled, investor sentiment remains cautious amid rising geopolitical risks.

Markets are closely monitoring the escalating conflict, which intensified after Israel’s strike on Iran Friday and Iran’s retaliatory missile launches. The two nations have since continued targeting each other’s energy infrastructure, fueling concerns over broader economic impacts. Iran is reportedly weighing a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil flow. Meanwhile, Israeli officials claimed to have achieved “aerial superiority” over Iran.

Despite the turmoil, risk appetite returned modestly Monday morning. All of the 'Magnificent Seven' stocks were up in premarket trading. Tesla gained nearly 2%, Meta rose close to 1%, and Palantir—viewed as a potential beneficiary of global instability—jumped more than 2%.

Investors are now turning their focus to U.S. manufacturing survey data due later today and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday. Fed funds futures suggest nearly a 100% probability of no rate change, though political pressure for cuts is mounting.

Portfolio:

It’s Fed week—and potentially a defining one.

We’ve been pointing to a summer setup for months, and all signs are pointing to a breakout moment ahead. Barring any surprises from the Fed, we believe the market is poised to accelerate toward 52-week highs. Under the surface, positioning is heavy, rotation is clear, and leadership is beginning to emerge.

A year ago, we warned that the “pain trade” was higher—and it’s starting to look like déjà vu. Many are still focused on fading rallies, chasing shorts, or holding onto a bearish narrative. But the price action tells a different story.

Over the weekend, headlines leaned overwhelmingly negative, yet here we are with strength in premarket. If we fill Friday’s gap, it could trigger a powerful short-covering move.

Current setups we're holding:

SOXL, NVTS, BBAI, and LCID.

The queue remains loaded, but we’re staying patient ahead of the Fed.  But be ready as we would love to add.