May 7, 2025

Markets:

Markets climbed Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and monitored developments in U.S.-China trade talks.

Disney surged over 6% after reporting a surprise gain in streaming subscribers and beating earnings and revenue expectations. In contrast, Uber dropped around 4% after missing revenue estimates.

Futures got a lift after reports that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and trade official Jamieson Greer are set to meet with Chinese counterparts this week in Switzerland—seen as a positive sign after recent volatility triggered by President Trump’s tariff announcement.

The Fed's rate decision is expected at 2 p.m. ET, with futures pricing in a 97% chance of no change. However, all eyes will be on Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for clues on the future path of rates. Powell remains under political pressure, with President Trump recently stating his removal “cannot come fast enough,” though later walking back any intent to fire him.

Portfolio:

We head into today—Fed Day—holding positions in SOUN, S, TSLL, and SOXL. Patience is key until the Fed speaks, and then we strike. Adding to the anticipation: a cryptic Trump teaser from 13 hours ago—“EARTH-SHATTERING ANNOUNCEMENT TO COME.” I've never been so curious in my life.  

As expected, markets have been choppy ahead of the Fed—two gap-down opens now filled, and today we see a higher open. We expect limited movement until Powell’s post-FOMC remarks. Watch the bull gap fill level—it should provide strong support if there's volatility after the announcement.

Technically, daily and weekly setups are looking better. Bases are forming and strengthening, just as we hoped to see early in the week. Today's reaction to the Fed minutes and Powell’s Q&A will likely shape the next short-term move—and possibly ignite a broader trend. It's coming.  Be ready.