April 30, 2025

Markets Overview:

Stock futures declined Wednesday morning, capping off a turbulent April as new data revealed that the U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter. The 0.3% drop in gross domestic product was driven largely by reduced business confidence amid an uptick in trade-related policy activity from President Trump.

In employment news, ADP reported that private sector payrolls grew by just 62,000 in April—well below expectations of 120,000 and down sharply from March’s 147,000. This further weighed on market sentiment.

In tech, Nvidia shares slipped over 2% in premarket trading, following a more than 17% drop in Super Micro Computer after the company issued disappointing preliminary results for its fiscal third quarter. The weak guidance has raised concerns about potential softening in AI server demand.

Despite these headwinds, major indexes closed Tuesday higher after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted at an imminent White House trade deal—though the counterpart nation was not named. Later, President Trump indicated progress in tariff talks with India, suggesting a deal could be reached soon.

Portfolio Update:

We remain positioned in TSLL, SOUN, S, and AAPU.

The negative GDP print was driven by just two components:

Trade (specifically, import activity) shaved 4.83% off GDP due to tariff front-running.

Government spending contributed -0.25%, marking the first negative contribution from that sector since 2022.

We believe these are anomalies rather than long-term trends.

Our call: Markets could be flat by week’s end. Today offers an opportunity to build positions. Remember, trading psychology is just as important—if not more so—than technical analysis. Staying disciplined and focused on the broader setup is key.

Key Levels to Watch:

TSLA above 293 = breakout

AVGO over 196 = strong upside momentum

COST clearing 1000 = similar behavior to NFLX in recent sessions

We’re also seeing significant bullish call activity across the board, suggesting institutional positioning for upside in these names.

Today (Post-Close):
MSFT, META, HOOD, and QCOM report earnings—likely to be major market movers.

Tomorrow:
Watch for results from AMZN, AAPL, IOT, ABND, RDDT, and TEAM. These will heavily influence both sector sentiment and broader market direction.

Final Note:

We continue to expect markets to trade flat to higher by Friday. Stay patient, avoid getting whipsawed by intraday moves, and stick to the evolving plan. The groundwork is being laid now for the next big leg up. Understand what is building and coming from these prices.