April 24, 2025
Markets:
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped early Thursday after China stated there are no ongoing trade talks with the U.S., dashing hopes for a near-term easing of tensions between the two nations.
Major indexes surged more than 1% on Wednesday but ultimately closed well off their highs. The Dow was up more than 1,100 points at its peak before pulling back.
Wednesday’s rally was fueled by optimism over potential progress on trade. Earlier in the week, President Trump indicated a willingness to take a softer approach with Beijing, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there’s an “opportunity for a big deal” on trade. Currently, Chinese imports face a steep U.S. tariff of 145%.
However, those hopes were quickly tempered. Overnight, China’s Ministry of Commerce made it clear there are no active discussions with the U.S. Spokesperson He Yadong dismissed any claims of progress and called for the cancellation of “unilateral” tariffs.
In other news, Trump said Tuesday evening that he has “no intention” of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term runs through May 2026. This provided a small boost to sentiment, especially as tensions between the two have escalated—Trump recently labeled Powell a “major loser.”
Portfolio:
Tonight brings key earnings from GOOGL and INTC, and there’s plenty to dig into. As many of you know, we often take a contrarian stance—and that approach worked especially well throughout 2024, particularly with the AI narrative.
Right now, sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish, and that alone might be the setup for a reversal. The market has herded everyone to one side of the trade, which rarely ends well for the majority. When the crowd is leaning short—like we’re seeing now—it’s often the cue for a sharp move higher. If the market wants to squeeze and force people to chase, we’re getting close.
Keep that in mind.
Today is another one to closely watch price action and flow, especially with GOOGL’s monster earnings on deck tonight. Stay patient. Be ready.