April 22, 2025

Markets:

Stock futures are pointing higher Tuesday morning as traders look to bounce back after a tough session on Wall Street. Sentiment took a hit Monday following fresh criticism from President Donald Trump, who once again called out Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Truth Social, labeling him “Mr. Too Late” and a “major loser.” Trump warned that the economy would slow unless the Fed cuts interest rates.

This comes after a brutal Monday session where the Dow tumbled over 970 points, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq shed more than 2%. It marked the fourth consecutive losing session for both the Dow and Nasdaq.

Traders will be watching for the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey results Tuesday morning, along with remarks from several Fed officials, including Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler.

Portfolio:

Heading into today’s session, we’re holding puts in MGA, METU, and S. It's been a punishing stretch—markets have been in a vicious cycle—but here’s what’s absolutely clear: the more painful the setup is now, the more powerful the reward will be when this finally turns. And it will turn.

Cycles like this don’t just fade away—they resolve in dramatic fashion. History shows us how handsomely traders have been rewarded after similar periods of uncertainty. The key here is patience. Once the Fed capitulates and some tariff clarity arrives, we believe the market will rip to new highs. Six months post-resolution, we’d be shocked if we aren’t testing or breaking all-time highs again.

People dismissed us during the early tech and AI rally, calling it a fad. We enjoyed a massive run for about 15 months or so. We’re telling you again: once this storm clears, the upside call activity we’ve seen in tech names is signaling there’s much more ahead. This cycle is far from over.

Yesterday, we saw a mechanical buy at SPY 510—a key confluence of levels: the 4/10 low, a 50% retracement, and the 61.8% Fib from the recent move. Let’s watch how the market reacts here.

TSLA reports earnings tonight—very curious to see if that helps carve out a bottom. Lately, markets have been moving purely on headlines, which makes trading choppy and unpredictable. We'd love to see a decoupling from that dynamic. Interestingly, we're starting to see early signs of that in Bitcoin. Could that be the leading indicator?

All options are on the table. Stay patient here! The payoff on the other side of this could be massive.