April 15, 2025

Markets:

U.S. stock futures dipped slightly Tuesday morning following back-to-back gains for the S&P 500. Investors are digesting the latest wave of Q1 earnings reports while also keeping an eye on economic data.

Monday’s rally was led by strength in the tech sector, fueled in part by Friday’s guidance from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which outlined exemptions from “reciprocal” tariffs on electronic goods like smartphones, computers, and semiconductors. However, comments over the weekend from President Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested these exemptions could be temporary.

On the data front, investors will be watching March’s import and export price indexes, along with the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

In Asia, most major indexes moved higher overnight, mirroring Wall Street’s tech-driven momentum.

Portfolio:

We head into the session holding positions in TSLL, and S.

Monday afternoon brought some notably bullish action, especially in names that have been under pressure recently. TSLA saw significant buying interest above $310, and similar flows hit GOOGL, AMZN, and NVDA. Notably, a QQQ buy-write trade sold 10,000 May 9th (W) $485 calls for $4.08—indicating a target near AVWAP off the highs.

It’s been a while since we’ve seen this kind of aggressive positioning, particularly late in the session. Meanwhile, the VIX continued to drift lower—this morning included—potentially signaling a base is forming. With earnings from major tech names coming up next week, this could get very interesting.

If we continue to see large size trades today, especially in the beaten-down high-beta names, that would be a strong bullish signal. There’s a noticeable shift happening beneath the surface. Headlines seem to be losing their grip on sentiment, and the worst of the tariff uncertainty may be behind us.

Also worth noting: SPY and QQQ have firmly broken above key technical levels. Combine that with the quiet but meaningful flow from institutional players, and this may be the most important "silent tell" we’ve seen yet.  The tone of the market may be shifting, and if the positioning continues, it could be a big tell for what's to come.

Be ready today.