April 11, 2025

Market:

Stock futures edged higher Friday morning as investors digested the latest developments on the tariff front, hoping to end a volatile week on a positive note.

Trade tensions remain top of mind after President Trump announced a shift in U.S. tariff policy, lowering country-specific duties to a universal 10% rate — with one major exception: China. Goods imported from Beijing will now be subject to a steep 145% tariff, according to a White House official speaking to CNBC.

In response, China retaliated by raising tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%, up from 84%. “Even if the U.S. continues to impose higher tariffs, it will no longer make economic sense and will become a joke in the history of world economy,” the Chinese finance ministry stated, per a CNBC translation.

Initially, futures dipped on the news out of Beijing, but sentiment reversed after the European Union announced that its trade representative would travel to Washington on Sunday in an attempt to “try and sign deals.”

Thursday’s session was rough across the board. The S&P 500 dropped 3.46%, the Dow plunged 1,014.79 points (or 2.5%), and the Nasdaq Composite slid 4.31%.

Portfolio:

Yesterday’s session was a rollercoaster, and now all eyes are on President Trump — will he make a statement before the weekend about a potential tariff resolution? It feels like we’re getting close.

Technically, the market showed signs of strength. SPY bounced perfectly off its anchored VWAP from the lows, and ES_F respected the 1-week VWAP. That’s the kind of price action we love to see — showing respect for key trendlines and levels.

Next week marks the start of Q2 earnings season, and we couldn’t be more excited. There’s real potential for this to be a master class for traders and investors alike. The big wildcard will be tech — especially companies heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing. Guidance may be light or vague, and that uncertainty could create some massive trading opportunities.

The reality? A deal with China is coming — and soon. The idea that we’ll plunge into a full-blown trade war is pure noise. Once the dust settles, there’s a credible argument for the S&P 500 racing to 5,900+ — and quickly.

On the macro side, today’s PPI came in at 2.7% vs. the expected 3.3%. Are we looking at early signs of deflation? If so, the Fed is clearly behind the curve. The next few weeks will be crucial, and we’ll be ready to take advantage — long or short.