March 28, 2025

Markets:

U.S. stock futures edged lower on Friday as investors grappled with ongoing tariff uncertainty and digested the release of a key inflation measure.

The personal consumption expenditures price index came out hotter-than-expected with core inflation hitting 2.8% in February, increasing concerns about persistent inflation.

The report comes after a losing session for the major averages. On Thursday, the 30-stock Dow fell about 155 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 slid 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.5%.

Those moves took place after President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on “all cars that are not made in the United States,” the latest tariff development to roil the market. Investors — concerned that rising signs of weakening consumer sentiment are heightening the risk of a slowdown — are hoping April 2 will bring some much-needed clarity.

Stocks could stage a major comeback after April 2, much as they did in 2018 when investors last sought clarity on the tariff front from President Donald Trump, according to Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.

“The odds of a V-shaped recovery in stocks that come after April 2 is just extremely high because we’ve already sequenced a lot of the panic that people saw in 2018,” Lee said Thursday on CNBC.

Portfolio:

As we head into the final trading session of the week, we are holding setups in TSLL, S, METU, and QUBT.  We are adjusting our stop on S to 18.50.

With March coming to an end—thankfully, as it felt like a never-ending cycle of headlines—we want to emphasize the importance of a disciplined approach to the markets. Filtering out the noise from "what if" news headlines allows for much clearer technical analysis. Tune out the distractions and focus on what the charts are actually showing. News can easily create a bias, whether you realize it or not.

Beneath the surface, there is a lot of strength in the market, both fundamentally and technically. If the market truly intended to break below 550 on SPY, it would have happened by now. That’s why I strongly believe April is setting up to be a massive month for returns. I align with Tom Lee from Fundstrat on the potential this month holds. Stay patient—some of the best trading opportunities of the year could be right around the corner. If things play out as expected, we could generate a year’s worth of returns in the next 30 days.

Regarding yesterday’s session—low-volume, mechanical, and purposefully held in this zone. ODTE intraday action was intense but ultimately led to nothing. This setup is wound tight, and when the move happens—whether up or down—it will be fierce. We’re prepared either way, but let’s be honest, bull markets are far more enjoyable to trade. A technical breakout is imminent—I hope traders are paying attention.