March 21, 2025

Markets:

U.S. stock futures declined Friday morning as the S&P 500 aims to break a four-week losing streak driven by trade policy uncertainty, recession fears, and weakness in megacap tech stocks.

Despite recent volatility, the S&P 500 is on track for a 0.4% weekly gain, marking a potential end to its month-long downturn. At one point, the index briefly dipped into correction territory but has since rebounded and now sits about 8% below its all-time high—short of the 10% correction threshold—as it attempts a recovery.

The bulk of this week's gains came Wednesday after the Federal Reserve maintained its forecast for two rate cuts in 2024. However, the Fed also raised its inflation outlook and lowered economic growth projections, sparking renewed concerns about stagflation—an environment of slowing growth and rising inflation. Meanwhile, ongoing uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policies has rattled markets, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell warning that tariffs could "delay" progress on inflation.

For the week:

The Dow is on track for a 1.1% gain, its best weekly performance since late January.
The Nasdaq is down about 0.4%, heading for its fifth consecutive losing week—its longest streak since May 2022.

Portfolio:

We head into quad witching Friday, with a staggering $4.5 trillion in options expiring today—yes, you read that right. Our current holdings include APDN, METU, and TSLL

Market sentiment remains fragile after Thursday’s war headlines rattled investors. The market has faced relentless pressure since the President’s inauguration, yet SPY refuses to break below 550, a crucial technical level. Yesterday, we came close to a breakout but failed to hold above resistance. Key levels to watch:

SPX 5715: A breakout here could trigger a strong squeeze higher.
SPX 5500: Major support zone—if broken, expect accelerated downside.
QQQ 472: Must hold this level for tech to stabilize.
Expect extreme volatility today, but the real price action will unfold on Monday. We’ve observed a clear shift in how markets react to headlines—momentum appears to be stabilizing, but confirmation is needed. Ignore the noise—price action and trend lines will guide us.

When the market confirms a breakout or breakdown, we’ll be ready. The biggest returns come from decisive moves, and a resolution is close.