March 19, 2025

Markets:

Stock futures climbed on Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

While the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, traders are closely watching the central bank’s updated forecasts for rate policy. Officials will release their quarterly projections on interest rates, GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment—key insights at a time when uncertainty looms over the U.S. economy and financial markets.

Tuesday’s session brought renewed volatility, as the market sell-off resumed after two consecutive days of gains.

In recent weeks, major indexes have been on a roller coaster, navigating weak economic data and ongoing uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. The S&P 500 officially entered correction territory last week, while the Nasdaq remains in correction—down more than 10% from its recent high.

 

Portfolio:

FOMC day is here! Clarity will be welcome, so let’s stay patient and get right into it.

As always, we closely track the Q’s, as they provide one of the best reads on the market. Last Tuesday, QQQ hit a low of $467, which has held so far. It was tested again on Thursday, followed by a rally on Friday, with QQQ closing near $480.

This week started with a push higher on Monday, but the market gave back those gains—and then some—on Tuesday. Technically, the market pivoted from the 60-minute downtrend and remained above last Friday’s levels without breaking the prevailing 60-minute DTL. Yesterday’s narrow-range action was notable, as the market hasn’t seen such movement in nearly a month. On a 60-minute timeframe, this could indicate a potential higher low off the $467 double bottom.

For a constructive move higher, QQQ needs to break and hold above $480, then make a strong push past $484. That shift would confirm a pivot and mark a potential change in market character. Key stocks must participate for this to play out. TSLA saw after-hours bids following what appears to be positive sentiment from SpaceX’s successful astronaut rescue mission—a potential catalyst.

Silence the noise. Follow price action and flow. Our trend lines have guided us for years, and they will again. When the turn is confirmed, we’ll be ready to capitalize. Our biggest returns come from breakouts or confirmed breakdowns—neither has been settled yet, but a resolution is coming soon.

Current Holdings: No changes to METU and TSLL. We want to add, but only for an A+ setup before the FOMC decision. The Fed is the wildcard today, but its impact usually lasts no more than 24 hours. Few understand.