March 18, 2025

Markets Update:

Stock futures dipped early Tuesday following two consecutive winning sessions that provided a brief recovery from the recent market downturn.

The gains from Monday marked a second straight positive session on Wall Street, signaling a shift after weeks of turbulence. Investors remain cautious amid weak economic data and uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s fluctuating tariff policies.

Tesla, one of the hardest-hit stocks in the recent market correction, continued its decline on Tuesday. The stock fell over 3% in premarket trading after RBC Capital Markets lowered its price target, citing increased competition in the electric vehicle sector. Tesla has now dropped nearly 33% over the past month.

The S&P 500 entered correction territory last week but has regained some ground in the recovery rallies seen on Friday and Monday. However, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite remains in a correction, still down more than 10% from its recent high. All three major indexes remain negative for the year, reflecting the depth of the recent pullback.

Investors are closely watching developments from the White House while also shifting their focus to the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, beginning Tuesday. Markets are awaiting Wednesday’s interest rate decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. CME’s FedWatch tool indicates a 99% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady.

Portfolio Update:

We head into today holding only one position in TSLL.  Great day yesterday booking mltuiple profits and we wanted to stay light in positions so we can add over the next few sessions with anticipated volatility due to FOMC.. As we monitor price action and emerging trendlines, one key question remains: Has the QQQ confirmed a reversal with its hammer candle formation, or is this just a retest of last week’s breakdown?

One thing is certain—if the trendline is reclaimed, Q2 could kick off with strong momentum, mirroring patterns seen in past market corrections in 2024 and 2021. However, failure to recapture this level could keep bearish hopes alive for a move toward 450.

Key events to watch today: Jensen Huang's presentation for NVDA and the start of the FOMC meeting. The next 48 hours will be critical—if everything aligns, we could see a major market move taking shape.  Be ready but stay patient.  The biggest move will be tomorrows final hour after FOMC and Powell's Q&A session.