March 17, 2025

Markets:

Stock futures declined early Monday, extending last week’s market struggles.

Wall Street just wrapped up another rough week for equities. The Nasdaq Composite sank further into correction territory, while the small-cap Russell 2000 approached a bear market, down nearly 20% from its peak. The S&P 500 briefly dipped into correction territory before recovering, while the Dow suffered its worst weekly drop since 2023, falling 4.4%.

Investors are grappling with President Donald Trump’s rapidly shifting tariff policies, compounded by mounting signs of economic weakness that have sent markets into turmoil. The uncertainty has sparked concerns about whether the current stock market correction could escalate into a full-blown bear market.

This week is pivotal for Wall Street. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at its policy meeting on Wednesday, but Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting remarks will be closely analyzed for any shifts in tone. Powell has reiterated that the central bank is in “no hurry” to cut interest rates, and investors will be watching for any deviation from that stance.

Market participants will also dissect upcoming economic data for signs of a slowdown. Monday’s U.S. retail sales report will provide insight into consumer strength, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones expecting a 0.6% increase in February retail sales.

Portfolio:

Heading into this high-stakes week, we’re holding positions in UMAC, APPS, and TSLL. Bulls have work to do, but SPY is showing strength with its first sustained bull gap in a while. If an inverted head and shoulders pattern takes shape, a breakout above 563 could trigger a measured move toward 577, filling the initial bear gap.

With March options expiration ("witching") and Powell’s comments on deck, volatility could increase. Negative gamma remains a factor, and while bulls have a chance to regain control, they face a challenging road ahead. Today’s market flow will be key—stay alert and ready.