March 10, 2025

Good morning, MonsterTrades!

We’re heading into an important week while holding just one setup and ready to attack this market.  Only setup is HOOD.

Markets remain volatile, but the price action we’re seeing overnight and into premarket—following two weeks of intense selling—suggests we could be near a bottom. We haven’t officially called one yet, but this has all the hallmarks of a "Monday-morning world-is-ending flush"—a classic bottoming pattern where we drop hard and then never look back.

The key level we’re watching is 550 on SPY. If we break and hold below, we could easily see another 10-15% downside, and we’ll be ready to attack it. That said, we highly doubt we get there.

Market Trend & Momentum Signals:

The market remains choppy, driven by macro data and momentum shifts.
Watch momentum positioning: If crowding levels break 90%, another wave of selling could hit, leading to true capitulation—which we might already be seeing in premarket.
Key level to watch: ES 5820-5840—this is where we either push toward YTD highs (5949+) or break lower, triggering more momentum selling and a deeper structural shift.

Key Economic Events This Week:

– Tuesday, March 11 – JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM ET) → Below 7.5M signals labor weakness
– Wednesday, March 12 – CPI Report (8:30 AM ET) → Core CPI above 0.3% MoM could spike bond yields
– Thursday, March 13 – PPI & Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) → Crucial inflation and labor data
– Friday, March 14 – Consumer Sentiment (10:00 AM ET) → A drop below 70 signals weaker spending
– Wildcard: Government Shutdown Deadline (March 14, midnight ET) → Potential late-week volatility

This setup creates the perfect storm for a reversal when no one expects it—right as key data hits.

Final Thoughts:

Today will be very telling. stay patient—your greatest opportunities will emerge from this reset.