March 7, 2025

Markets:

S&P 500 futures were near flat on Friday as traders sought to look past U.S. trade policy worries that have rattled the market this week. They also awaited a big payrolls report.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 6 points, sitting near flat. S&P 500 futures were also little changed, while Nasdaq 100 futures edged up 0.1%.

The February jobs report is due out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast jobs growth of 170,000 jobs for and expect the unemployment rate held steady at 4%.

This action comes after a rocky session on Thursday, with the major averages going back into sell-off mode as the latest concessions on President Donald Trump’s tariff policies failed to calm investors. The blue-chip Dow lost more than 400 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell into correction territory, ending the session more than 10% off its high.

Stocks have been on a roller-coaster ride as Trump’s tariff policies have worried investors over future U.S. growth. While Trump said on Thursday that a swath of goods from Canada and Mexico that are covered by the North American trade agreement known as USMCA would be exempt from the announced duties until April 2, that wasn’t enough to spur a recovery rally similar to the one seen on Wednesday.

Broadcom, a major artificial intelligence play, jumped more than 9% before the bell after earnings exceeded Wall Street’s expectations. AI darling Nvidia also rose in Friday’s premarket after a rough week.

Portfolio:

Today is a significant trading session with the release of the nonfarm payrolls report, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech this morning, and President Trump scheduled to speak at 1:30 p.m. Additionally, an S&P rebalancing after the market close adds another layer of complexity to price movements.

We enter the session holding setups in MSTU and SOXL.

Markets are expected to be headline-driven once again. The Nasdaq-100 closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since March 2023, which should not come as a surprise. Historically, both the 200-day and 200-week moving averages serve as key levels that stocks eventually revisit. The primary question now is how long the Nasdaq will remain below this level and whether it is headed toward a retest of the COVID-era highs from 2021 and 2022.

In March 2023, a similar dip to the 200-day moving average triggered a rally that extended into July, fueled by declining inflation and rising expectations for interest rate cuts. Today’s market action, along with data received over the weekend, will provide crucial insights into the next major move. While current price action may be challenging, it is also setting up significant opportunities and potential market leaders.

Patience is key. As we head into the weekend, the market is at a pivotal point, and a strong trend should emerge, presenting a monster opportunity for us all to capitalize on.