March 6, 2025

Markets:

Stock futures were under pressure Thursday as investors sought out more clarity on the latest U.S. tariff measures.

U.S. tariffs on Canadian, Mexican and Chinese imports took effect this week, rocking financial markets. Canada and China responded with retaliatory levies of its own, while Mexico said it would unveil measures over the weekend.

The major averages have lost more than 1% this week as trade tensions escalate. But the benchmarks got a boost Wednesday after the White House said it would grant a one-month delay for tariffs on automakers whose cars comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

This development fueled traders’ hopes that Trump could provide further exemptions. Yet some on Wall Street questioned the effectiveness of these exceptions.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book and the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing reading both indicated fear of rising input costs because of the tariffs. Data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas released Thursday showed layoff announcements soared to 2020 highs, which the outplacement firm found was driven by Trump and billionaire Elon Musk’s efforts to shrink the federal government’s workforce.

Portfolio:

We head into today's session holding positions in SOXL and CONL.  As challenging as it may be for some to accept, the market remains extremely strong as we move further into 2025. It continues to consolidate within a wide range. Looking at the bigger picture, we’ve once again bounced perfectly off a long-term trendline—connecting the October 2023 lows, the September 2024 lows, and now this recent move.

As for levels and seasonality, March is shaping up similarly to February, but historically, the March-to-May period tends to be favorable for trading before volatility picks up again in June. I’m starting small for now, but I plan to get more aggressive toward the end of the quarter.

I wouldn’t be too concerned about today’s pre-market action. What matters most is how we close and where we stand by Friday. Stay patient—it’s setting up!