February 28, 2025

Markets:

Stock futures rose Friday after the latest personal consumption expenditures price index came in-line with expectations. Meanwhile, the major averages were headed toward a losing week and month.

S&P 500 futures added 0.3%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 224 points, or 0.5%. Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.2%.

Month to date, the Nasdaq Composite has led the way down, sliding around 5.5% in February due largely to a 5% drop this week. The technology-heavy Nasdaq is on pace for its worst month since September 2023.

The S&P 500 has declined 2.5% for the week an around 3% in February. The broad market index is on track for its worst week since September 2024 and biggest monthly decline since April 2024.

Traders have been rattled by President Donald Trump’s promise of tariffs and recent economic reports flashing warning signs. A decline of 8.5% in megacap tech titan Nvidia in Thursday’s session the back of earnings threw more cold water on investor sentiment.

Portfolio:

Final day of the month and what has historically been a turbulent month for traders, this February the trend definitely played out over the last several sessions and eliminated overall gains the market had since the start of the new year.  However, we are technically still in a bull market.  

Now technically speaking we got our washout yesterday into PCE data.  NYMO was only -15 and that price into the close  – again from a technical standpoint and seeing spy touch 585 and bouncing – is suppose to be the bottom.  The overnight flush and now the buyers stepping in is what you want to see.  I would like to think we bounce from here and 585 is well defended and this is the low and we move forward.  HOWEVER we have no problem turning on this market and attacking the short side should they break and hold below this key line for us short term.  Today and Monday are key for this.  Cannot stress this enough.  There are a lot of names down to their 100d and some at 200d.  The line is here essentially.  That bull gap filled, now its time to defend and move.  The snap back can be absolutely ferocious once traders see it being printed.  Just keep that in mind, I would not want to be short here over the next two sessions.  NO reason.  Just allow it to materialize and then we move in.

One change to make:

APPS stop updated to 3.33

Please be ready today.  Expecting a wild session today and Monday – the start of a new month!  Monster opportunity should be created from these sessions.