February 26, 2025

Markets:

Stock futures rose Wednesday following a fourth-straight day of losses for the S&P 500. Investors are also awaiting earnings from market bellwether Nvidia.

A weaker-than-expected consumer confidence reading from the Conference Board weighed on stocks Tuesday. A raft of recent reports, including disappointing retail sales numbers and a weak consumer sentiment reading have spurred traders’ worries around the economy over the past week — and the major averages have suffered.

Nvidia’s fourth-quarter earnings, due after the closing bell Wednesday, could be the next catalyst for the market. The stock climbed 2% in the premarket Wednesday.

The report arrives at a pivotal time for Nvidia. The emergence of DeepSeek raised questions about the sustainability of the once-hot artificial intelligence trade. The chip giant and other momentum plays are also showing signs of fizzling, with Nvidia down more than 5% in 2025.

Economic data due on Wednesday include new home sales and building permits. The main event for investors will be the release of the personal consumption expenditures price index on Friday. The PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

Portfolio:

Cannot wait for NVDA's report to come in after the close and for us to digest it and move on within 24 hours of it. It's clear we are in the final stages of this unwind over the last four sessions. We now have deeply oversold conditions and so much value in front of us. Falling rates, weaker dollar, lower crude, and now the new administration looking to jump start its program with tax cuts and lifting the debt ceiling. Throw in the current AI cycle and tech revolution that is taking place (many seem to have forgotten about this over the last 4 sessions) and quickly you realize the gift that's at hand. One more item to note, Zelenskiy plans to meet with President Trump on Friday. If this war comes to an agreed end under Trump, market will auto rally hard.

A lot of stocks went on sale yesterday after that morning flush. I hope many grabbed starters as we mentioned in yesterday intraday how it felt that was capitulation to us. Here are some numbers to consider and why value is here, just need to get NVDA reaction out of the way and we move forward. SPY and QQQ down about 4% since the highs, MAGS like NVDA, AMZN, GOOG, META down nearly 15% from the highs while AAPL remains the champion. One more item to note is the SMH sector – one of the most valuable sectors to the markets and world. Semi's have compressed for almost 10 months now. Bring up a chart, hope you see the monster developing there and what's about to start.

Here are some facts. NAMO level at these points is the same as it was back in February 2024 before a major rally occurred. Just some things to consider but we know what we are planning for.

Our current positions are moving nicely in pre (HOOD & CONL). Queue is igniting with force that we have not seen in weeks! Stay patient. The main event is tonight, and we move forward. Whatever they print all we care about is Jensen's outlook.  Be ready today.