February 13, 2025

Markets:

Stock futures edged higher Thursday as traders digested slightly hotter-than-expected inflation data, while global trade fears continue to linger.

The January producer price index, which measures what producers get for their goods and services, rose 0.4% in January. That’s higher than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 0.4%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.3% for the month and in-line with the forecast, helping ease sentiment.

Wall Street is coming off a choppy session after a data on Wednesday showed consumer prices sped up faster-than-expected, curbing expectations of the next rate cut out to September.

Investors are also grappling with rising global trade tension. On Wednesday, the White House said President Donald Trump would impose reciprocal tariffs on imported goods before meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Trump on Thursday posted on Truth Social that “today in the big one: reciprocal tariffs.”

Earnings season continues, meanwhile, with Airbnb, Coinbase and Palo Alto Networks among the companies expected to report after Thursday’s closing bell. Of the more than 69% of S&P 500-listed firms that have already posted results, more than 75% have surpassed Wall Street expectations, according to FactSet.

Portfolio:

The market continues to build momentum, and this morning’s sentiment data reinforces our bullish outlook. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows:

• Bullish sentiment dropped to 28.4% from 33.3% last week.
• Bearish sentiment surged to 47.3% from 42.9%, marking the lowest bull-bear spread (-18.9%) since early November 2023.

We love to see this level of skepticism—it signals that many still doubt the rally, which means the real chase has yet to begin.

The key risk right now? Tariffs and their ripple effects. However, historical trends suggest these headlines create short-term noise rather than long-term obstacles. Once this uncertainty clears, the market could take off. Regardless of political views, the current administration remains market-friendly, and we believe that stage of the cycle is still ahead.

We enter today’s session holding SMR, ASAN, and S. 

Keep an eye on QQQ. If it can break and hold the 533-535 level, we could see significant upside. Technical traders—study that chart. The setup is a thing of beauty!