November 15, 2024

Markets:

U.S. stock futures fell on Friday morning as the postelection rally wavered and the Federal Reserve signaled it was in no hurry to keep cutting interest rates.

Stocks took a leg down Thursday afternoon after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said during an event in Dallas that the central bank wasn’t “in a hurry” to cut interest rates. That comes after the Fed cut the borrowing cost last week. Markets have trimmed expectations for another cut at the Fed’s December policy meeting and are now assigning a roughly 62% probability of a quarter percentage point reduction, per the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, down from 82.5% before Powell’s remarks on Thursday. That’s compared to a 37% probability for holding rates steady next month.

Shares of Tesla, thought to be a major election beneficiary because of CEO Elon Musk’s backing of President-elect Donald Trump, are off by 3% this week after rocketing higher 29% last week.

Investors will watch Friday for economic data on retail sales, import prices and industrial production. That caps a busy week for economic data that was punctuated by releases of closely watched inflation gauges focused on consumers and producers.

Portfolio:

So yesterday we mentioned the 590 level on the SPY and that would be the ultimate line in the sand. Honestly, I'm surprised we got here overnight and thought 595 level would hold. This week was definitely an opportunity to add for longer dated portfolio's. We expected chop this week but am surprised they took it to 590, about a 50% retracement now from the Trump rally. I will go on record as stating we do not see it breaking and holding under 590 but should we – which would surprise us – the next major line for us and our model is 570. However, keep in mind it's a big OPEX day today. Market is known for humbling traders into these sessions and not paying everyone off. This has created monster opportunity, and the theme has not changed. By year end, we believe, we will be above 6030/6040 level. That's our firm belief and what we've been trading too with the runway we saw building since summertime. Its served us well and will continue to serve us well.

Nothing has changed technically. In fact, as tough as yesterday was, it is needed if you want to move higher. Higher lows continue to print and that's what provides a foundation to this move. The easiest and some of the best setups will emerge out of the first "big" pullback. Well here we are. Now let's dive in.

QQQ, we want to see it reclaim 505 today. Very bullish if it does. TSLA, bounced exactly where it should have at the 307 level and now green. TSLA might lead once again into NVDA earnings next week.  Bitcoin still remains hot which will feed into the market as well.

Throw in the seasonal trends along with yearend moves, and we are still in play for the overall bigger runway we continued to build too. I am very interested in today's response, close, and how we open on Monday. Again – we repeat – The easiest and some of the best setups will emerge out of the first "big" pullback. Here we are.

No changes needed on our current holdings of IONQ, GME, TSLL, and MBLY. Be ready today. Although it's Friday and we typically dislike adding into the weekend, we might need too with todays price activity.