September 17, 2024

Markets:

S&P 500 futures climbed higher Tuesday following better-than-expected retail sales data ahead of the start of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting.

Microsoft rose 2% after the tech giant hiked its quarterly dividend by 10.7% to 83 cents per share. The company also approved a $60 billion buyback program.

Intel shares popped about 7% in premarket trading after the company said it plans to make its foundry business a subsidiary. The Biden administration also awarded the company up to $3 billion in funding through the Chips Act.

The latest retail sales data indicated solid consumer health ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting set to begin on Tuesday. Retail sales rose 0.1% in August versus economists’ estimates for a 0.2% decline, according to Dow Jones. Excluding autos, the number also came in at a 0.1% increase, which slightly missed the 0.2% consensus forecast.

Wall Street is on standby for the Fed’s long-anticipated rate cut, a move that could help boost earnings growth for companies following a backdrop of steep borrowing costs and high inflation. The Fed first embarked on its aggressive hiking campaign in March 2022.

While investors expect a cut Wednesday, the market is divided on the size of the potential reduction. Traders are currently pricing in a 67% chance that the central bank eases rates by 50 basis points, according to CME Group’s Fed Watch tool. That’s up from a roughly 47% chance Friday.

Portfolio:

As a follow up from yesterday afternoons update on the overall technical standpoint for the markets, still pretty surprised and pretty incredible the strength we are actually showing heading into the FOMC meeting. Typically, we see a very safe approach heading into such a meeting, but we have seen some insane call lots with large upside calls being purchased to end 2024. To enter these trades prior to the FOMC is pretty incredible. Once again, we will state, there are so many constructive, beautiful charts printing. Continue to build and a life changing opportunity developing for the next several months.

Current positions have no updates needed. We currently hold ASTS, UPST, CPNG, and TSLL. Queue is igniting and we want to attack it but will remain patient until we get through the FOMC tomorrow. Be ready today.