September 16, 2024

Markets:

S&P 500 futures were little changed Monday morning as investors await the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated policy meeting, during which central bankers are expected to cut rates for the first time since 2020. Meanwhile, a pullback in tech giant Apple weighed on Nasdaq futures.

Apple shares declined more than 2% in early trading after analysts at firms, including Bank of America and JPMorgan, noted that shipping times could point to lighter demand for iPhone 16 Pro models than the prior year.

The S&P 500 is less than 1% away from its July record and could notch a new all-time high this week. After a rough start to a historically weak September, the three major U.S. indexes ended last week’s trading session in the green, with the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite just closing their best week of 2024.

The Fed is set to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday and are widely anticipated to make their first interest rate cut since they began hiking rates in March 2022. A cut this week would be a pivotal move, as many investors hope the decision could lower borrowing costs for companies and improve overall earnings growth — boosting economic growth.

The overnight lending rate is currently at 5.25% to 5.5%. Traders are split on whether the central bank will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points, per the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Portfolio:

Monster week ahead and we enter holding set-ups in UPST, CPNG, and TSLL. So much to plan for and we will remain super patient to start the week expecting chop in this market as we head into FOMC mid-week. Do not get caught up chasing morning moves and expect chop up to FOMC. Cannot stress this enough. Also, ahead of a very big week, we have Triple-Witching OPEX on 9/20. This is another major event that can cause a roller coaster type of move. We had a great week last week, stay patient and as we stated last week, we now look to plan for the next 30 days with our set-ups.

There are so many constructive, beautiful charts printing. But now we need to get through this week for further validation and we attack. Allow price to come to us and then we jump all over it. Be ready, stay patient, anticipate the chop next few sessions. The real reward will be after the event!