September 4, 2024

Markets:

U.S. stock futures fell Wednesday after the major averages kick-started September lower, with the S&P 500 clocking its worst day since early August.

Wall Street is coming off a losing session, with the major benchmarks posting their worst day going back to the Aug. 5th sell-off, as chip names came under pressure and the latest economic data implied slowing growth for the U.S. economy. The 30-stock Dow fell more than 600 points, or 1.5%, while the S&P 500 slid 2.1%. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.3%.

Traders are bracing for more volatility in September, historically a weak month for equities. Many investors anticipate a pullback of 5% or more in the coming weeks, although some money managers view any decline as a buying opportunity.

Traders will also look to the latest releases on the U.S. trade deficit, job openings and labor turnover (JOLTS) survey, and factory orders data.

 

Portfolio:

What a way to start the new month and a shortened trading week. Yesterday we saw some pretty good selling. Believe it was caused more so from analyst Tom Lee – a monster Bull especially in Tech – who stated he could see a 7 to 10% pullback in September before we rally to new highs to end the year.

Historically, September has been weaker for the markets, but it's actually been the last two weeks of the month. Then, October, would begin to set the stage for end of year rally we typically are accustomed too. The difference this year is we also have the election cycle in November and all the opportunity this brings. We truly do believe that Q4 will provide traders and investors the greatest opportunities we have seen over the last decade or so. So many things aligning to set this theory up.

But, back to yesterday's price action. This market has proven to expect the unexpected over the last 12 months or so and continues to print new highs. We thought we might go off script a bit in September but so far – seems the normal script could be in play. We still continue to print higher lows on the S&P which is extremely bullish. Can see a 2-3% rally before we possibly base / sell again. This is healthy! What we want to do is begin to position ourselves for Oct / Nov while attacking shorter time frame opportunities. Playing both sides of the trade.

Smaller time frames all over sold from 30m, hourlies, 4 hour. Looking at SPY 545 – 547 area. This could / should become support from the Late July move. Watching this closely. With data and Beige book to come, really not in a rush to add too much although the queue started to ignite with new set-ups. Staying patient as our opportunity will be there soon enough.

Open positions, no changes needed in ASTS, ADMA, SIRI, NIO, and TSLL. Yesterday evening the plan would be to hope for a gap down and to look to get long with the Q's this morning. Still could happen for a short-term trade but did not like the overnight trade. Just watching for head fakes. Be ready today. Expect updates and a possible new setup.