September 3, 2024

Markets:

Tuesday marks the first session of September’s trading month. U.S. stock futures declined Tuesday as traders braced for a potentially tough month ahead after a strong but volatile August.

U.S. markets were closed Monday due to the Labor Day holiday.

The major averages are coming off a winning session, securing a gain for major averages in the month. Notably, the S&P 500 clinched its fourth straight winning month.

Those moves came after a steep sell-off to begin the month. Concern over the U.S. economy falling into a recession, along with the unwinding of a popular hedge fund trade involving the Japanese yen, sent stocks tumbling in early August. At one point, the S&P 500 was down more than 7% for the month before recovering.

Investors will get their first major economic report of the month on Friday, when the U.S. government releases the August jobs report. Wall Street will also have to contend with seasonal headwinds, as September has been the worst month on average for the S&P 500 over the last 10 years.

Short week, but key data reports ahead:

Tuesday: ISM manufacturing index for August
Wednesday: July durable goods orders, Fed Beige Book
Thursday: ADP payrolls report for August
Friday: August U.S. jobs report

Portfolio:

We enter the new trading month and new trading week holding set-ups in RIOT, SIRI, MARA, NIO, and TSLL. Truly a large number of outstanding set-ups but need a bit more follow through to trigger. If we can base / hold around these levels, we could see an explosion across a number of sectors. Historically, September has been a difficult market for traders, and many are calling for a healthy 5 to 8% drop before we ramp up higher into the election cycle / end of season trade. However, what this market has shown over the last two years is the exact opposite of overall "thought" as to where the market is headed. Many continue to deny the tech / AI cycle taking place. We follow the trend and money.

Key lines we are watching; SPY 554 on the downside. We have no problem trading / basing from 560 – 554. Higher lows continue to print on the SPY! Historically, September has not been too friendly towards Semi's but there are a few outstanding charts in this sector right now. AVGO reports on Thursday and this is a monster market mover for this sector. Also, two names that have outperformed historically in September; AMZN & GOOGL. Keep an eye on these two monsters as well.

Overall, stay patient today and this week. Traders return from their summer hiatus. Volume returns. Historical notion of a pullback in September before ramp. Allow this to play it and then we attack. Cannot stress enough the number of names that have beautiful charts and set-ups printing. Just want to make sure no head fakes. Love this time of year, it allows us to trade and position ourselves for the greatest moves of the year.  Throw in the election cycle and we have everything in place.